Nineteen. That is the number of times that my old radio movie review show colleague and I have engaged in a yearly showdown to determine which of us is more skilled at predicting the nominees in the six most notable Academy Award categories.

Two. That is the number of times we have been equal forecasters, getting the same number of nominees exactly correct. This includes last year, when we each named twenty-four of the thirty nominees.

Zero. That is the number of times I have won this annual competition. Again, that number is zero. Nada. Nil. Goose egg.

0-17-2. That is my dismal, leonine record.

And the nominations for the 81st Academy Awards are announced this coming Thursday. So the time has come for me to put my fearful predictions forward and see if I can finally put one in the W column. I will report the results of this battle on Thursday, no matter how dire they may be.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

On the radio program, we would occasionally draw attention to the faultiness of approaching evaluation of the Academy as if it were a single person, instead of a mass of individuals with distinct and varied predilections. Naturally, we offered this cautionary caveat in the midst of engaging in that very practice. This happens in part because the proportional voting system used to generate the the five finalists in each category is designed to skew the nominations towards a diverse slate, making it feel as if someone has scratched out the selections on their own, being careful to mix things up. That’s a needlessly lengthy way to explain my unfulfilled desire to structure these five nominees in such a way that only one nobly beleaguered African-American mother role is included. I just can’t quite bring myself to omit either one, however. Cruz and Winslet seem to be the safest bets here, although Winslet being relegated to the supporting category for this role is ludicrous. She may actually have more screen time than any other actor. I’d think Maria Tomei is a lock, too, except for that fact that I was proved wrong on my equal certainty about her earning her third Oscar nomination this time last year. I’d like to get Debra Winger in here because they love nominating seasoned pros who make comebacks. And because her performance damn well deserves to be here.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon

Hey look! A bunch more performances that are probably more accurately categorized as leads. Hoffman, Patel and (I presume) Sheen fit nicely into that assessment, and Downey and Ledger are both far more central to their films than, say, Taraji Henson is to hers. It’s probably a mistake for me to include Sheen in favor of Josh Brolin’s performance in Milk, especially since the Academy previously ignored the Welsh actor’s award-worth work in major award-contender The Queen. See there how I referenced the Academy as if it were a singular entity again. It’s very hard to avoid.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristen Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

In the past, this has often been the category that cost me the win, as I tend to stumble here and my cohort usually nails all five. Uh, so to speak. To settle on these five, I need to ignore Screen Actors Guild Award nominees Angelina Jolie and Melissa Leo (not to mention the largely ignored Academy favorite Cate Blanchett, who could still slip in if Benjamin Button proves to be the Oscar powerhouse it once seemed). Further, except probably for Streep’s, I can envision any of these performances being snubbed on Thursday. We used to joke about the Oscars always making room for a token foreign language performance. The truth behind that snark combined with the Academy’s longstanding helpless adoration for all things British is what makes me think Scott Thomas will be included for her work in the French-language Loved. On the other hand, I leave off Jolie under the following logic: if the Academy didn’t see fit to recognize her fine work in last year’s A Mighty Heart, why would they nominate her performance in a less well-regarded film in a more competitive year? Applying this sort of logic to nomination predictions, especially logic reliant upon year-to-year comparisons, is rarely the path to victory. (Funny how being on the losing end of this for so long leads to the explanatory paragraphs being dominated by preemptory explanations for my anticipated defeat.)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

It’s not going to be a great morning in the Brangelina household if I’m right, is it? I think the rampant Slumdog love has softened the Button support that Pitt’s bland turn will be duly ignored. They might bypass either Eastwood or (perhaps more likely) Jenkins in favor of him, but this lineup looks more right to me than just abut any other quintet I’m tapping out here.

Best Directing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, David Fincher
The Dark Knight, Christopher Nolan
Frost/Nixon, Ron Howard
Milk, Gus Van Sant
Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle

Except maybe for this quintet. These are the five men nominated for the equivalent Directors Guild award. Usually, I’d prefer to change up one of these, but I can’t figure out who else might be a strong enough contender to factor in here. Maybe Andrew Stanton for Wall-E if the directors are feeling especially bold. Not to pile on one of my least favorite movies of the year, but some of the scuttlebutt associated with the curious case of David Fincher certainly makes it seem like he might not make the cut.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

I wrestled with including The Dark Knight (there are plenty of indications it will be a nominee), but I struggle with the notion that there are enough people in the fairly conservative Academy willing to vote for a Batman movie for the biggest prize of the year. Meanwhile, I’m figuring Doubt to factor in three different acting categories. It also seems like the sort of safely important movie that is often afforded a slot.