Sure, that banner above would work much better on Sunday, but that’s the day I’m committed to demonstrating how good I am at counting backwards. For the foreseeable future, this annual indulgence needs to land a few days earlier.

What follows is my best approximation of how I might fill out a nominating ballot issued for the acting branch of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences had it landed in my hands. All the usual caveats apply, mostly the admission that there are problematic gaps in my personal viewing so the exclusion of certain names may reflect my own shortcomings more than any that may or may not exist in the performances. But then, I doubt Mickey Rooney saw Martha Marcy May Marlene or Shame and he gets to vote. According to voting rules, I ranked my selections in order.

The main thing I’m struck by is how far apart I am from the list of actual Oscar nominees with only five performances in common. I’m not necessarily wildly out on a limb with some of these names either with several of them garnering significant Oscar buzz at one point or another or having picked up other noteworthy awards in the run-up to the big ceremony. In the past, I’ve been a fairly steady defender of the Oscar selections, noting that even if I don’t completely agree with their choices they usually opt for respectable winners and honorees. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that my opinion has completely turned on that, but I also can’t remember another year when not a single one of my own selections for the best performances of the year didn’t at least factor into the Oscar nominations.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
2. Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter
3. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
4. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
5. Juliette Binoche, Certified Copy

Push comes to shove, I might name Dunst’s work in Melancholia as the best performance of the year, regardless of category. She does absolutely amazing work in a role that is basically defined by its sluggish withdrawal, hardly the quality that affords ample opportunity for showboating. How Chastain’s rich, toughly deep performance in Take Shelter wasn’t held up as the apex of a her breakthrough year is beyond me. The others are true pros doing great, creative work, even when the films are flawed. For me, this category is by far the strongest of the year. I suspect Viola Davis will edge out Meryl Streep for the actual trophy on Sunday night. I think she gives more to the role in The Help than it gives to her, but her performance has none of the complexity of the five I list above.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
3. George Clooney, The Descendants
4. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
5. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 50-50

There’s a strong similarity between Take Shelter and Melancholia. Shannon’s performance isn’t much like that of Dunst–the characters begin and end in totally different places–but it’s equally surprising and fascinating, ignoring the expected notes to grind away at a deeper truth. I like Clooney quite a bit in Alexander Payne’s good but flawed film, but I’m a little perplexed as to why so many prognosticators were certain–and many remain certain–that this would be “his year,” as if he didn’t already have a little golden man on the mantle. He may be the closest thing the industry has to a widely beloved star these days, but it takes a special performance or a dearth of competition to get that second award. Clooney may have the first (though I think he was better in Up in the Air, but he sure doesn’t have the latter. That Dujardian performance seems like the obvious winner to me. The movie is nice but slight, but he’s really doing something special. And he’s managed to be irresistibly charming throughout the whole Oscar season. I think he’s going to win and everyone’s going to stand up while they clap for him.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Jennifer Ehle, Contagion
2. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
3. Elle Fanning, Super 8
4. Anna Kendrick, 50-50
5. Alison Pill, Midnight in Paris

Now this is motley band of performances, I will admit. Most of these people never had a shot at an Oscar nomination, but Woodley was really robbed. They clearly love The Descendants and I think Woodley’s beautifully naturalistic performance is major part of the reason why Clooney’s turn works as well as it does. I’ve already gushed about Ehle elsewhere. I want to note that if Pill’s take on Zelda Fitzgerald had a little more screen time, I’m sure I’d have it ranked even higher. Her scenes were easily my favorite part of Woody Allen’s surprise hit. I’m certain that Octavia Spencer will win in this category for The Help, but the appeal of that performance is completely lost on me. Except for the fact that the character is structurally the one that is expected to stand out, I don’t know why anyone would take notice of Spencer’s adequate but unremarkable performance.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Ben Kingsley, Hugo
2. Albert Brooks, Drive
3. John C. Reilly, Terri
4. Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life
5. Jonah Hill, Moneyball

If Best Actress is the strongest category, this one is the weakest. I think Hill is quite good in Moneyball, but I think I may have even remarked after seeing it that it still seemed a good distance from what I would usually consider Oscar-worthy work. And yet, picking five performances, there it is. Given the bountiful love rained down upon Martin Scorsese’s Hugo, I’m amazed that Kingsley, a four-time Oscar nominee and previous Best Actor winner, never even seemed to be in the discussion for his splendid, soulful performance that conveys every bit of the grave loss of spirit of his character, which is, after all, the emotional crux of the whole movie. As for Sunday, Christopher Plummer will win and it will be a lovely moment. He does nice work in Beginners, even if I don’t think it’s intricate or inspired enough to laud in this fashion. On the other hand, the man who’s spent almost fifty years referring to the widely revered classic that also happens to be the biggest movie of his career as “The Sound of Mucus” absolutely deserves whatever awards the Hollywood community cares to give him.