After a string of years where the grand finale of the Academy Awards was largely uncertain up to the point when envelopes started being torn open, today’s nominations announcement confirmed we’re in a season of foregone conclusions. The thirteen nominations for Oppenheimer combine with the comparative underperformance of its main competitors, including its longstanding partner in memorable memes, signal a proper coronation for Christopher Nolan’s epic drama is on the way. Other films had strong showings, but always with chinks in the armor — Killers of the Flower Moon missing in the screenplay category, Willem Dafoe being left out of the Poor Things haul — that lessened the likelihood of them turning into spoilers. There’s some jockeying to be done in the two lead acting categories, but otherwise get ready for the easiest-to-predict Oscars in years.

In the run-up to today’s nominations, there was a lot of conversation about whether the Academy voters would be snobbishly dismissive of Greta Gerwig’s Barbie, and it’s hard to argue against that being exactly what took place. Sure, it collected eight Oscar nominations, including a place in the Best Picture lineup and the mild but welcome surprise of America Ferrera competing the category for supporting actresses. Where the blockbuster comedy was bypassed was more telling: editing, cinematography, and, most damningly, directing. All three films Gerwig has solo-directed have been Best Picture contenders and earned her screenwriting nominations, but she’s been allowed among the five honored directors only once, for Lady Bird. Jane Campion remains the only woman to be a repeat nominee in the category.

It’s an Oppenheimer year. With a few exceptions, any competing nominees are just there to clap for it.

Other thoughts:

—After Steven Spielberg caught up with him last year, Martin Scorsese once again edges past his compatriot in career nominations for directing. Scorsese is up to ten nominations in the category and is now two behind all-time leader William Wyler.

—With the nominations for Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro, Scorsese has directed a total of twenty-four performances to Oscar contention. He is tied with Elia Kazan on the all-time list in that respect, behind only William Wyler, who pointed his camera at thirty-six performances the nabbed nominations.

—And if we’re talking about Scorsese at the Oscars, we’re talking about Thelma Schoonmaker at the Oscars. His longtime partner in the editing suite picked up her ninth career nomination. She moves past Michael Kahn for the all-time lead in the editing category.

—Songwriter Diane Warren is up to fifteen career nominations. She’s never won and is not likely to prevail this year. It’s also the seventh year in a row she’s competed in the original song category. It is becoming almost comedic that the music branch keeps inviting her to the ceremony for songs no one knows and are destined to lose.

—Robert De Niro is up to eight career acting nominations, half of them for Scorsese films. Bradley Cooper, Annette Bening, and Jodie Foster all hit five career acting nominations. It’s the first nomination for Foster since Nell, almost thirty years ago.

—There’s evidently room for only one Wisconsin-born actor in the category for supporting actors, as Kenosha boy Mark Ruffalo makes the cut but Appleton’s Willem Dafoe does not. Ruffalo and Poor Things co-star Emma Stone both collect their fourth career acting nominations.