Now that I’ve rattled off my selections for the ten best films of 2023, it’s time to get to another tradition around these here digital parts. Shortly before the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences bestows their annual awards, I offer up my humble suggestions regarding the actors who were most deserving of receiving nominations in the lead and supporting categories. More specifically, if I had the honor of filling out a nominating ballot for the actors branch, this is the way I would do it:

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Natalie Portman, May December
2. Michelle Williams, Showing Up
3. Greta Lee, Past Lives
4. Emma Stone, Poor Things
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie

In what feels like a regular refrain for me, I’ll note that there was a ludicrous abundance of lead actress performances that I felt were deserving this past year. In addition to the five listed above, I was blown away by Annette Bening in Nyad, Sydney Sweeney in Reality, Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall, Scarlett Johansson in Asteroid City, Teyana Taylor in A Thousand and One, Julia Louis-Dreyfus in You Hurt My Feelings, and Ayo Edebiri in Bottoms. Most of the performances I do include have been discussed enough during the long awards season that I don’t feel the need to elaborate much further except to note that I’m stunned Natalie Portman didn’t get more acclaim in official circles for what I consider to be career-best work. I’m less surprised, unfortunately, that Michelle Williams was overlooked for another splendid collaboration with director Kelly Reichardt. As for the Oscars, I’ve long suspected that Lily Gladstone will win in this category, and I’m sticking by it. I don’t have Gladstone in this list, but keep reading.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
2. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
3. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
4. Teo Yoo, Past Lives
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

By contrast, the roster of leading male performances after this quintet is not nearly as well-stocked. That typed, Paul Giamatti’s wonderful turn in his reunion outing with Alexander Payne is my pick for the best overall acting of the year, regardless of category. I believe there’s a slim chance that the respect he’s earned as a veteran character actor will snag him a win on Sunday, but I suspect Cillian Murphy will benefit from Oppenheimer having an old-fashioned Oscar sweep night. That’s fine; he’s great in the role. It’s a real shame that Andrew Scott didn’t make the cut for stunning, heart-piercing work in All of Us Strangers. I’m pleased my honest tallying included both Past Lives leads. Colman Domingo’s movie is middling, but he is indeed marvelous in it.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Jodie Foster, Nyad
3. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.
5. America Ferrera, Barbie

Both of the supporting acting winners are absolute locks this year, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph fully deserves her pending coronation. She’s so impressive in The Holdovers: funny, heart-rending, and powerfully charismatic. In my estimation, Jodie Foster isn’t that far behind. Between this and the recent True Detective: Night Country barnburner, I feel like she’s having more fun acting than she has in ages, maybe ever. I’m glad Gladstone is officially competing in the lead acting category, but I think it’s more of a supporting performance (maybe to the slight detriment of a very good movie) so I slotted her marvelous acting here. I wish McAdams had gotten more credit for the crafty depth she generated in this year’s dandy Judy Blume adaptation, and I’m delighted that America Ferrera made the Oscar list. Yes, the major monologue is a showstopper, but she’s wonderful throughout the film.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
2. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
4. Charles Melton, May December
5. Jeffrey Wright, Asteroid City

The Academy chose the wrong Poor Things supporting actor. In the fictional universe I despotically control, Mark Ruffalo already has an Oscar with his name engraved on it, so please know that I’m have no ill will towards my fellow Dairyland boy. His nominated performance is far too broad for my taste, but his co-star and co–Wisconsin native, Willem Dafoe, is amazingly deft in a far trickier role. It’s amazingly late in a storied career for Robert De Niro to still have a revelatory turn, and yet there it is. For a long time I had Ryan Gosling in the lead category, but I became convinced otherwise when someone did the math and determined his screen-time amounts to only twenty-five percent of the movie. Charles Melton’s omission is as perplexing to me as that of his costar Portman. Jeffrey Wright’s main speech in Asteroid City is a work of acting art, and his later line reading of “He’s furious. Thanks a lot, Ricky” just might be my single favorite moment in the 2023 year in film. Anyway, Robert Downey Jr. is going to win this category. If the character — and therefore the performance — didn’t collapse into pure villainy in the the third act of Oppenheimer, I’d be fine with that choice.