As we barrel towards Hollywood’s biggest night, I’m confident that Demi Moore, Kieran Culkin, and Zoe Saldaña will wake up on Monday morning as Oscar winners. The one acting category that still carries any real suspense is the one for lead actors, where either Timothée Chalamet or Adrien Brody is bound for glory (despite the SAG Award win for the former, I’m still betting on the latter). In this yearly exercise, I usually save my predictions for the the little write-ups after each category, but it struck me as illuminating to lead with to the fact that only one of the likely trophy recipients for excellence in acting is included in my quintets, by my assessment belonging in a different category. That’s less a measure of distaste for the Academy’s presumed top selections and more a measure of the overall strength of the year.

In making my choices for the year’s best performances, I followed the same self-set rules as always. What follows is how I would have filled out an acting branch nominating ballot, complete with the ranking the process calls for, had I been given the privilege to do so.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Mikey Madison, Anora
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
3. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
5. Zendaya, Challengers

My choice at the very top of the list is the only one of the five that made the cut with the Academy, and Mikey Madison would have an outside shot at winning if Moore hadn’t become a juggernaut with an amazing run through the awards season defined by her pitch-perfect acceptance speech at the Golden Globes. Whenever hold the final shot in The Substance up against historic Academy taste, I find it so implausible that Moore is about to win a lead acting trophy for it. The standing ovation she got when picking up a SAG Award strenuously argues otherwise. Danielle Deadwyler was pushed in the supporting category, but I think she’s a lead. The other three names here all seemed to be in the mix at one point or another. Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s omission from the Academy’s chosen five strike me as most egregious.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
4. Justice Smith, I Saw the TV Glow
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man

I consider Colman Domingo’s work in Sing Sing to represent the best overall acting of the year, regardless of category. I can’t say Sebastian Stan is nominated for the wrong movie, because the idea of sitting through a couple hours of docudrama origin story of the nation’s most famous felon makes me want to vomit. Even so, his acting in A Different Man is so exceptional that it surely isn’t bettered by his other prominent performance this year. I remain adamant that Kieran Culkin is co-lead in A Real Pain, so I place him accordingly. Justice Smith is so raw and compelling in I Saw the TV Glow, and Glen Powell deserves more credit than he got for delivering a charming comic tour de force in Hit Man.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
2. Michele Austin, Hard Truths
3. Darya Ekamasova, Anora
4. Margaret Qualley, The Substance
5. Katherine Mallen Kupferer, Ghostlight

I’ve heard a lot of dismissive griping about Isabella Rossellini’s nomination for Conclave because of the perception (which, to be fair, is likely accurate) that it is for only one brief but impactful scene. That mistakes acting for talking. Rossellini is far more present in Conclave than that, acting through silence as the part demands. Her performance is the best in what is admittedly the weakest of the four acting categories this year. I’m still very fond of the other four performances I cited here. I want to make particular note of Margaret Qualley’s work in The Substance. Although I know there’s a lot of extra backstory that’s fueling Moore’s ascendency to likely Oscar winner, it’s still bizarre to me that anyone would watch The Substance, cast their nominating vote for Moore, and not also write in Qualley’s name for equally committed turn.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

1. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
4. Yura Borisov, Anora
5. Mike Faist, Challengers

After seeing Sing Sing, I was convinced Clarence Maclin had the inside track to actually winning the Oscar in this category, so his absence — and the general underperformance of the marvelous Sing Sing — is perplexing. Edward Norton and Maclin are so close to each other at the top of my list of supporting actors, that I could almost flip a coin to decide between the two. Today, I give Norton the edge. I could easily change my mind tomorrow. Yura Borisov is very deserving of his Oscar nomination, and I wish I could have made room for Karren Karagulian’s highly entertaining performance in the same film. Adam Pearson is really wonderful in A Different Man, and Mike Faist is, for me, the slightly stronger of the two complicated tennis pals in Challengers.