Let’s get this out of the way: I lost again running my twenty year record in the previously discussed Oscar predicting competition to a dismal zero wins, eighteen losses and two ties. Despite the hand-wringing of my previous post, I’m perfectly pleased to play the eternal Erica Kane to the all-the-character-names-of-the-actresses-who-managed-to-best-Susan-Lucci-for-the-daytime-Emmy-over-the-years represented by by old radio show colleague. By my rushed count, he correctly named 23 of the 30 nominees, while I only got 21. There are a lot of different ways to evaluate the difference between us, but the fact that he included the modern Hollywood royalty of Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie when I suspected they’d both be left out is as succinct a way to name the margin of victory as any.

Congratulations again to . Now, on to the nominations…

There’s plenty that went as expected here. It was no feat, for example, that we both properly predicted the inclusion of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk and Slumdog Millionaire in the Best Picture category. Just about everyone who takes this nonsense seriously knew those four would be in the mix. Those who named identified the Best Picture nominee as The Reader deserve an extra hearty pat on the back today. Besides the mild surprise, there are three other especially notable details from the nominations regarding the Holocaust drama. First, there’s the fact that Academy voters ignored the campaign push to slot Kate Winslet’s performance into the Best Supporting Actress category, correctly designating her as a lead instead. A similar switch happened years ago when Susan Sarandon earned her first of five Best Actress nominations for Atlantic City even though Paramount Pictures had promoted her in the supporting category, but that sort of deviation is quite rare. Secondly, Stephen Daldry has now received Best Director Oscar nominations for each of his first three films, a feat which is, I suspect, unprecedented. Finally, and perhaps most significantly, the surprisingly strong showing of The Reader may very mean that the Harvey Weinstein machine is back in full operation. Through the nineties, Weinstein had an astounding ability to push releases from his studio Miramax into the Best Picture race whether the accolade was merited or not. The Reader‘s topic may make it seem like prime Oscar fodder, but it’s unexpected strength in the biggest of big categories bears the mark of Harvey reestablishing himself.

I think the most surprising omission may be Clint Eastwood’s absence from the Best Actor category. He’s become such a sure bet nominee in recent years that his critically lauded work in Gran Torino seemed a natural fit, especially after the film proved to be a commercial success. I actually would have given Eastwood a reasonable shot at winning had he got in. I’d note similar surprise about Christopher Nolan being left out of the Best Director nominations, but, as I noted when offering my predictions, no matter how good or successful The Dark Knight was, it’s still a movie about Batman. It may be a measure of how lukewarm the support for the film really is that the first-rate screenplay didn’t duplicate its Writers Guild of America nomination (only “may be” because the adapted category is already stuffed with the four Best Picture nominees and an Oscar-winning screenwriter who adapted his own Pulitzer Prize-winning play).

Speaking of that play, Doubt gets four acting nominations without getting a Best Picture nomination. I need to figure out the last time that happened.

And back to Kate Winslet for a moment. Her Reader performance landing in the lead category probably cost her the chance to be a double nominee this year since it effective eliminated her work in Revolutionary Road from the competition (I’d wager a major sum of money that if the Academy Awards allowed a performer to be nominated twice in the same category that Winslet would claim two of the Best Actress slots, and that Winslet’s Reader performance probably forced the Academy to invoke the Barry Fitzgerald rule” this year). However, it also probably locked her in for a win. Winslet is on nomination number six (an astonishing number considering she’s only 33-years-old) and is therefore overdue. Eliminating any confusion over which film to reward her for just makes the path easier. Additionally, Penelope Cruz is probably feeling excited about Winslet exiting her category.